A first analysis of the NZ record-level data

Not long ago Steve called me and said that had some real unaltered vaccination records and wanted me to see what they revealed about vaccine safety. Here’s my take on it. There’s so much more to dig in here, but I leave that as an exercise to the reader. Steve has made the data public here.

Turns out the vaccine increases death rates in the first 6 months after the shot which persists for about a year before going back to baseline. And it’s the last dose that kills you – pulling forward death into that first year post shot.

Let’s start with death rate. Here we see the number of deaths per 100,000 person days after the last shot. More on that metric later, but it’s the least biased way we can look at the data we have. The blue line is from the vaccine records, the red is from some synthetic data I created that was explicitly designed to NOT have any vaccine effects (more on that below, too).