In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that “our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt, a difficult future,” emphasizing that “governments must work to reduce debt and rebuild buffers for the next shock, which will surely come, and maybe sooner than we expect.”

This advice comes with a warning. At the current rate of spending, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 198 percent by 2050, even without expecting a recession. The G-7 public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to soar to 188 percent; the global figure would rise to