Amid rapid AI progress, the authors of this paper express a consensus on the large-scale risks from upcoming, powerful AI systems. They call for urgent governance measures and a major shift in AI R&D towards safety and ethical practices before these systems are developed.

In 2019, GPT-2 could not reliably count to ten. Only four years later, deep learning systems can write software, generate photorealistic scenes on demand, advise on intellectual topics, and combine language and image processing to steer robots.

As AI developers scale these systems, unforeseen abilities and behaviors emerge spontaneously without explicit programming[1]. Progress in AI has been swift and, to many, surprising.

The pace of progress may surprise us again. Current deep learning systems still lack important capabilities and we do not know how long it will take to develop them.

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Iron Will

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