The current federal government has committed to significant new spending in areas of provincial jurisdiction, including national pharmacare, dental care, and child care programs—even beyond its current tenure to 2025. However, the money promised is not guaranteed, and the federal government may reduce or eliminate funding in the future, leaving an unexpected and potentially large financial burden on the provinces and territories.
Federal governments have made major changes to transfer programs in the past; for example, in 1996/97, when the CAP and EPF was replaced with the Canada Health and Social Transfer (CHST), reducing nominal federal health and social cash transfers to the provinces and territories by $6 billion (or 32.4 percent) over two fiscal years.